2010 Mets: Projection and Reality
From The Met Wiki
For the first time in years the Mets were generally projected to be below .500. And yet the die-hards argued that this team is largely equivalent to the one that was excellent until the end in 2006 - 2008. Midway through the season, the arguments persisted. Is this a team with only about 5 players who belong on a Major League roster? Or is it somehow something magical? Are guys like R.A.Dickey and Angel Pagan proof that this team won't compete, or diamonds in the rough? It's been a wild and wonderful run so far, with a 20-inning victory, 2 triple plays (one for & against), and a near perfect game. Enjoy the ride!
The key questions
The Mets entered 2010 with serious question marks everywhere. Most importantly:
Health
The Met starter at every position got hurt in 2009. The healthiest were David Wright (whose disabled list stint was from getting hit in the head with a fastball) and Luis Castillo (who hasn't actually been healthy in years, and whose Gold Glove winning and "sparkplug" days are long gone). If the Mets can otherwise stay reasonably healthy they could be a very good team again.
What's happened so far: 3 starting players, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Daniel Murphy started the season on the DL. Couple of relief pitchers went down. John Maine left his 5th start in the 4th with elbow pain, Oliver Perez soon followed him to the DL, and neither has made a start since. Beltran didn't come back till after the All Star break. Reyes has had issues. Castillo went down. And yet ... the team has been mostly healthy, with replacements filling in nicely for the guys who went down.
Starting pitching
Johan Santana is back from surgery. Will he return to Cy Young form?
Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez are all young pitchers who pitched very well in the Majors and then turned awful. Can they put it back together?
Jon Niese learned a new pitch and suddenly dominated at AAA before getting injured with the Mets. Can he repeat that success in the big leagues?
Fernando Nieve and Nelson Figueroa are the next in line to get a chance. Each is a big question mark in his own right, having flashed brilliance, but not for long periods.
What's happened so far?
The starting pitching has been fantastic, but not the way many foresaw.
Santana once again has been far better than he gets credit for. He's had some bad outings but has been mostly stellar, including giving up 0 or 1 run in a remarkable 11 of his first 19 starts. As in his 2 previous seasons with the Mets, he's getting little support from his hitters or bullpen, though the Met defense is coming through.
Pelfrey got off to an extraordinary start, reaching 9-1 with a 2.39 ERA in mid-June. Then he was awful for two months before coming back in style, outdueling Ubaldo Jimenez 1-0.
Niese on the other hand struggled early, got hurt, and then returned to go 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA in his next 8 starts.
Maine and Perez were awful and haven't started since May.
But the biggest surprise was their top replacement, R.A. Dickey. A 34 year old who was a career 22-28 with a 5.44 ERA, the knuckler started surprising AAA and then Major League hitters, going 4-2, 2.23 for Buffalo, and then 6-3, 2.66 with the Mets.
Hisanori Takahashi had some good and bad starts. In August the Mets finally sent him back to the bullpen and brought up Pat Misch.
Nieve looked great in the pen, blew his only start, and then pitched poorly in the pen too, possibly because of overwork early in the season. Figgy was waived, and is now pitching for Philly. I guess we should call him Phiggy now.
Relief pitching
Francisco Rodriguez was phenomenal early in 2009 and then crash landed. Which K-Rod will we see?
Who is the 8th inning man? Can Pedro Feliciano continue to be more than a lefty specialist? Will Bobby Parnell get enough movement on his pitches to realize his potential?
Going into 2009, the bullpen was the Mets' biggest concern, and they addressed it by bringing in Rodriguez and J.J. Putz (that second part didn't work out at all). The bullpen was bad the second part of the year, but nobody cared or noticed since the rest of the team was even worse. For the Mets to compete in 2010, they'll need the bullpen to deliver.
What's happened so far?
K-Rod and the rest of the pen have been delivering. Bobby Parnell became the 8th inning man, and the Mets are dying to get Takahashi back to the pen. The bullpen was tremendously overworked early, but then the starters (except for Takahashi) started consistently going deep.
David Wright's power
Wright stopped hitting for power in 2009. He started striking out a lot. The official word was that he made adjustments for Citi Field. Maybe. Consensus now is that he better learn to un-adjust, and go back to the man who placed 4th in MVP voting in 2007 and 2008.
What's happened so far?
Got off to a good start, and then started striking out all the time again. And then he became player of the month of June. David's 14 homers at the break is 4 more than his 2010 total. Though hitting the 100 strikeout mark the second game after the break (6th in the league) was somewhat discouraging.
Others
Daniel Murphy had a horrible 3-month slump, but a strong finish, and seems to be becoming a good defensive first baseman. Can he be a high OBP guy with decent power?
>> Who knows? Got injured, Ike Davis took his place. Then got injured some more and won't be seen till 2011.
Will Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes return to the healthy forms that placed them 3rd and 9th in MVP voting in 2006?
>> Uh, not yet.
Will Jeff Francoeur walk enough to be a valuable ballplayer?
>> Nope. Got off to a nice start, and then, poof.
Can Luis Castillo repeat last year's OBP and get a little closer to the defensive ability that made him a 5 time Gold Glove winner not that long ago?
>> Doesn't look like it.
Can either Angel Pagan or Gary Matthews Jr. live up to the brilliance that each has flashed?
>> Pagan has been fantastic, with an All Star level first half. Matthews was awful and has been released.
The only 2 positional battles in Spring Training, for catcher and center field, are the least of the Mets' concerns. The biggest questions are health, pitching, and David Wright's power.
